Herein, our purpose was to calculate the 5-year and lifetime risk of breast cancer and to assess new breast cancer potential contributors among Egyptian women utilizing the modified Gail model, while presenting a global comparison of risk assessment.
Methods
This study included 7009 women from both urban and rural areas scattered across 40% of the Egyptian provinces. The 5-year risk categories were defined as low risk (≤ 1.66%) or high risk (> 1.66%), whereas the lifetime risk categories were defined as low risk (≤ 20%) or high risk (> 20%). Pearson's Chi-squared test was performed to determine the association between participants' characteristics and distinct risk categories. Binary logistic regression was carried out for correlation analysis.
Results
The mean estimated risk for developing invasive breast cancer over 5 years was 0.86 (± 0.67), whereas the mean lifetime breast cancer risk score was 11.26 (± 5.7). Accordingly, only 614 (8.75%) and 470 (6.7%) women were categorized as individuals with high risk of breast cancer incidence in 5-year and lifetime, respectively. Only 192 participants (2.7%) conferred both high 5-year and high lifetime risk scores. Marital status, method of feeding, physical activity behavior, contraceptive use, menopause and number of children were found to have a statistically significant association with both 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk categories.
Conclusion
We revealed that modified Gail model had a well-fitting and discrimination accuracy in Egyptian women when compared with other countries.
Gail model breast cancer risk prediction Egyptian women, modified Gail model 5-year lifetime breast cancer risk, breast cancer risk factors Egyptian women cross-sectional study, contraceptive use breast cancer risk assessment Gail model, menopause breastfeeding physical activity breast cancer risk Egypt, breast cancer risk prediction model validation developing countries, Saleh Gail model breast cancer Egyptian population, binary logistic regression breast cancer risk categories, breast cancer screening risk assessment reproductive factors, 5-year lifetime breast cancer risk score population study
PMID 33852122 33852122 DOI 10.1007/s10549-021-06200-z 10.1007/s10549-021-06200-z
Cite this article
Saleh, B., Elhawary, M. A., Mohamed, M., Ali, I., Zayat, M. S. E., & Mohamed, H. (2021). Gail model utilization in predicting breast cancer risk in Egyptian women: a cross-sectional study. Breast cancer research and treatment, 188(3), 749-758. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10549-021-06200-z
Saleh B, Elhawary MA, Mohamed M, Ali I, Zayat MSE, Mohamed H. Gail model utilization in predicting breast cancer risk in Egyptian women: a cross-sectional study. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2021;188(3):749-758. doi:10.1007/s10549-021-06200-z
Saleh, Basem, et al. "Gail model utilization in predicting breast cancer risk in Egyptian women: a cross-sectional study." Breast cancer research and treatment, vol. 188, no. 3, 2021, pp. 749-758.
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