Changes in Frequency and Health of Live Births Following State Abortion Bans

Objectives. To quantify the impact of state abortion bans on trends in fertility and preterm birth following the June 2022 US Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization. Methods. We tested for changes in birth rates and preterm birth rates occurring in the first 18 months following the Dobbs decision by fitting 2-way fixed effects and staggered difference-in-difference models to compare trends in states that banned abortion and those that did not. Results. We detected a statistically significant increase in the birth rate and preterm birth rate among non-Hispanic (NH) Black women above what would be expected in the absence of a ban, averaging a 3.5% increase in the birth rate and 2.1% higher incidence of preterm birth. Impacts were similar in analyses limited to births to women with Medicaid coverage, where trends among NH Black women in states that banned abortion were significantly elevated. Conclusions. The emerging impact of state laws that ban abortion has been uneven, with trends in birth rates and preterm birth increasing especially among NH Black women in states that banned abortion. (Am J Public Health. 2026;116(3):345-350. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2025.308355).